CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-05-02T08:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-05-02T08:42Z
CME Note: The CME may have arrived on 2016-05-06T15:48Z. ACE magnetic field data shows a disturbance in form of a flux rope, plus density increased while the temperature decreased. Time of arrival is very rough.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-05-06T15:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-05-05T05:07Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 0.0%
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

SPM2 Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2016-05-02 08:42:00
Source Longtitude: -33
Source Latitude:  21
Initial Shock Speed:  369 km/s 
Background Solar Wind Speed:  380 km/s
Duration Time: 0.25 hour

Output results:The shock will not reach our Earth!

Lead Time: 40.88 hour(s)
Difference: 34.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2016-05-04T22:55Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy